Prospects for improving the representation of coastal and shelf seas in global ocean models

Accurately representing coastal and shelf seas in global ocean models represents one of the grand challenges of Earth system science. They are regions of immense societal importance through the goods and services they provide, hazards they pose and their role in global-scale processes and cycles, e.g. carbon fluxes and dense water formation. However, they are poorly represented in the current generation of global ocean models. In this contribution, we aim to briefly characterise the problem, and then to identify the important physical processes, and their scales, needed to address this issue in the context of the options available to resolve these scales globally and the evolving computational landscape. We find barotropic and topographic scales are well resolved by the current state-of-the-art model resolutions, e.g. nominal 1∕12°, and still reasonably well resolved at 1∕4°; here, the focus is on process representation. We identify tides, vertical coordinates, river inflows and mixing schemes as four areas where modelling approaches can readily be transferred from regional to global modelling with substantial benefit. In terms of finer-scale processes, we find that a 1∕12° global model resolves the first baroclinic Rossby radius for only  ∼ 8% of regions  < 500m deep, but this increases to  ∼ 70% for a 1∕72° model, so resolving scales globally requires substantially finer resolution than the current state of the art. We quantify the benefit of improved resolution and process representation using 1∕12° global- and basin-scale northern North Atlantic nucleus for a European model of the ocean (NEMO) simulations; the latter includes tides and a k-ε vertical mixing scheme. These are compared with global stratification observations and 19 models from CMIP5. In terms of correlation and basin-wide rms error, the high-resolution models outperform all these CMIP5 models. The model with tides shows improved seasonal cycles compared to the high-resolution model without tides. The benefits of resolution are particularly apparent in eastern boundary upwelling zones. To explore the balance between the size of a globally refined model and that of multiscale modelling options (e.g. finite element, finite volume or a two-way nesting approach), we consider a simple scale analysis and a conceptual grid refining approach. We put this analysis in the context of evolving computer systems, discussing model turnaround time, scalability and resource costs. Using a simple cost model compared to a reference configuration (taken to be a 1∕4° global model in 2011) and the increasing performance of the UK Research Councils' computer facility, we estimate an unstructured mesh multiscale approach, resolving process scales down to 1.5km, would use a comparable share of the computer resource by 2021, the two-way nested multiscale approach by 2022, and a 1∕72° global model by 2026. However, we also note that a 1∕12° global model would not have a comparable computational cost to a 1° global model in 2017 until 2027. Hence, we conclude that for computationally expensive models (e.g. for oceanographic research or operational oceanography), resolving scales to  ∼ 1.5km would be routinely practical in about a decade given substantial effort on numerical and computational development. For complex Earth system models, this extends to about 2 decades, suggesting the focus here needs to be on improved process parameterisation to meet these challenges

Research priorities in support of ocean monitoring and forecasting at the Met Office

Ocean monitoring and forecasting services are increasingly being used by a diverse community of public and commercial organizations. The Met Office, as the body responsible for severe weather prediction, has for many years been involved in providing forecasts of aspects of the marine environment. This paper describes how these have evolved to include a range of wave, surge, and ocean reanalysis, analysis, and forecasts services. To support these services, and to ensure they evolve to meet the demands of users and are based on the best available science, a number of scientific challenges need to be addressed. The paper goes on to summarize the key challenges, and highlights some priorities for the ocean monitoring and forecasting research group at the Met Office. There is a need to both develop the underpinning science of the modelling and data assimilation systems and to maximize the benefits from observations and other inputs to the systems. Systematic evaluation underpins this science, and also needs to be the focus of research

Recent Change—North Sea

This chapter discusses past and ongoing change in the following physical variables within the North Sea: temperature, salinity and stratification; currents and circulation; mean sea level; and extreme sea levels. Also considered are carbon dioxide; pH and nutrients; oxygen; suspended particulate matter and turbidity; coastal erosion, sedimentation and morphology; and sea ice. The distinctive character of the Wadden Sea is addressed, with a particular focus on nutrients and sediments. This chapter covers the past 200 years and focuses on the historical development of evidence (measurements, process understanding and models), the form, duration and accuracy of the evidence available, and what the evidence shows in terms of the state and trends in the respective variables. Much work has focused on detecting long-term change in the North Sea region, either from measurements or with models. Attempts to attribute such changes to, for example, anthropogenic forcing are still missing for the North Sea. Studies are urgently needed to assess consistency between observed changes and current expectations, in order to increase the level of confidence in projections of expected future conditions

The impact of ocean‐wave coupling on the upper ocean circulation during storm events

Many human activities rely on accurate knowledge of the sea surface dynamics. This is especially true during storm events, when wave-current interactions might represent a leading order process of the upper ocean. In this study, we assess and analyze the impact of including three wave-dependent processes in the ocean momentum equation of the Met Office North West European Shelf ocean-wave forecasting system on the accuracy of the simulated surface circulation. The analysis is conducted using ocean currents and Stokes drift data produced by different implementations of the coupled forecasting systems to simulate the trajectories of surface (iSphere) and 15 m drogued (SVP) drifters affected by four storms selected from winter 2016. Ocean and wave simulations differ only in the degree of coupling and the skills of the Lagrangian simulations are evaluated by comparing model results against the observed drifter tracks. Results show that, during extreme events, ocean-wave coupling improves the accuracy of the surface dynamics by 4%. Improvements are larger for ocean currents on the shelf (8%) than in the open ocean (4%): this is thought to be due to the synergy between strong tidal currents and more mature decaying waves. We found that the Coriolis-Stokes forcing is the dominant wave-current interaction for both type of drifters; for iSpheres the secondary wave effect is the wave-dependent sea surface roughness while for SVPs the wave-modulated water-side stress is more important. Our results indicate that coupled ocean-wave systems may play a key role for improving the accuracy of particle transport simulations

GABA uptake transporters support dopamine release in dorsal striatum with maladaptive downregulation in a parkinsonism model

Striatal dopamine (DA) is critical for action and learning. Recent data show that DA release is under tonic inhibition by striatal GABA. Ambient striatal GABA tone on striatal projection neurons can be determined by plasma membrane GABA uptake transporters (GATs) located on astrocytes and neurons. However, whether striatal GATs and astrocytes determine DA output are unknown. We reveal that DA release in mouse dorsolateral striatum, but not nucleus accumbens core, is governed by GAT-1 and GAT-3. These GATs are partly localized to astrocytes, and are enriched in dorsolateral striatum compared to accumbens core. In a mouse model of early parkinsonism, GATs are downregulated, tonic GABAergic inhibition of DA release augmented, and nigrostriatal GABA co-release attenuated. These data define previously unappreciated and important roles for GATs and astrocytes in supporting DA release in striatum, and reveal a maladaptive plasticity in early parkinsonism that impairs DA output in vulnerable striatal regions

The UKC2 regional coupled environmental prediction system

It is hypothesized that more accurate prediction and warning of natural hazards, such as of the impacts of severe weather mediated through various components of the environment, require a more integrated Earth System approach to forecasting. This hypothesis can be explored using regional coupled prediction systems, in which the known interactions and feedbacks between different physical and biogeochemical components of the environment across sky, sea and land can be simulated. Such systems are becoming increasingly common research tools. This paper describes the development of the UKC2 regional coupled research system, which has been delivered under the UK Environmental Prediction Prototype project. This provides the first implementation of an atmosphere–land–ocean–wave modelling system focussed on the United Kingdom and surrounding seas at km-scale resolution. The UKC2 coupled system incorporates models of the atmosphere (Met Office Unified Model), land surface with river routing (JULES), shelf-sea ocean (NEMO) and ocean waves (WAVEWATCH III). These components are coupled, via OASIS3-MCT libraries, at unprecedentedly high resolution across the UK within a north-western European regional domain. A research framework has been established to explore the representation of feedback processes in coupled and uncoupled modes, providing a new research tool for UK environmental science. This paper documents the technical design and implementation of UKC2, along with the associated evaluation framework. An analysis of new results comparing the output of the coupled UKC2 system with relevant forced control simulations for six contrasting case studies of 5-day duration is presented. Results demonstrate that performance can be achieved with the UKC2 system that is at least comparable to its component control simulations. For some cases, improvements in air temperature, sea surface temperature, wind speed, significant wave height and mean wave period highlight the potential benefits of coupling between environmental model components. Results also illustrate that the coupling itself is not sufficient to address all known model issues. Priorities for future development of the UK Environmental Prediction framework and component systems are discussed

Neodymium isotope constraints on provenance, dispersal, and climate-driven supply of Zambezi sediments along the Mozambique Margin during the past ∼45,000 years

Marine sediments deposited off the Zambezi River that drains a considerable part of the southeast African continent provide continuous records of the continental climatic and environmental conditions. Here we present time series of neodymium (Nd) isotope signatures of the detrital sediment fraction during the past ~45,000 years, to reconstruct climate-driven changes in the provenance of clays deposited along the Mozambique Margin. Coherent with the surface current regime, the Nd isotope distribution in surface sediments reveals mixing of the alongshore flowing Zambezi suspension load with sediments supplied by smaller rivers located further north. To reconstruct past changes in sediment provenances, Nd isotope signatures of clays that are not significantly fractionated during weathering processes have been obtained from core 64PE304-80, which was recovered just north of the Zambezi mouth at 1329 m water depth. Distinctly unradiogenic clay signatures (ENd values <214.2) are found during the Last Glacial Maximum, Heinrich Stadial 1, and Younger Dryas. In contrast, the Nd isotope record shows higher, more radiogenic isotope signatures during Marine Isotope Stage 3 and between ~15 and ~5 ka BP, the latter coinciding with the timing of the northern hemisphere African Humid Period. The clay-sized sediment fraction with the least radiogenic Nd isotope signatures was deposited during the Holocene, when the adjacent Mozambique Shelf became completely flooded. In general, the contribution of the distinctly unradiogenic Zambezi suspension load has followed the intensity of precession-forced monsoonal precipitation and enhanced during periods of increased southern hemisphere insolation and high-latitude northern hemispheric climate variability

The Early Proterozoic Matachewan Large Igneous Province: Geochemistry, Petrogenesis, and Implications for Earth Evolution

The Matachewan Large Igneous Province (LIP) is interpreted to have formed during the early stages of mantle plume-induced continental break-up in the early Proterozoic. When the Matachewan LIP is reconstructed to its original configuration with units from the Superior Craton and other formerly adjacent blocks (Karelia, Kola, Wyoming and Hearne), the dyke swarms, layered intrusions and flood basalts, emplaced over the lifetime of the province, form one of the most extensive magmatic provinces recognized in the geological record. New geochemical data allow, for the first time, the Matachewan LIP to be considered as a single, coherent entity and show that Matachewan LIP rocks share a common tholeiitic composition and trace element geochemistry, characterized by enrichment in the most incompatible elements and depletion in the less incompatible elements. This signature, ubiquitous in early Proterozoic continental magmatic rocks, may indicate that the Matachewan LIP formed through contamination of the primary magmas with litho-spheric material or that the early Proterozoic mantle had a fundamentally different composition from the modern mantle. In addition to the radiating geometry of the dyke swarms, a plume origin for the Matachewan LIP is consistent with the geochemistry of some of the suites; these suites are used to constrain a source mantle potential temperature of c. 1500-1550 degrees C. Comparison of these mantle potential temperatures with estimated temperatures for the early Proterozoic upper mantle indicates that they are consistent with a hot mantle plume source for the magmatism. Geochemical data from coeval intrusions suggest that the plume head was compositionally heterogeneous and sampled material from both depleted and enriched mantle. As has been documented with less ancient but similarly vast LIPs, the emplacement of the Matachewan LIP probably had a significant impact on the early Proterozoic global environment. Compilation of the best age estimates for various suites shows that the emplacement of the Matachewan LIP occurred synchronously with the Great Oxidation Event. We explore the potential for the eruption of this LIP and the emission of its associated volcanic gases to have been a driver of the irreversible oxygenation of the Earth

The role of stakeholders in creating societal value from coastal and ocean observations

The importance of stakeholder engagement in ocean observation and in particular the realization of economic and societal benefits is discussed, introducing a number of overarching principles such as the convergence on common goals, effective communication, co-production of information and knowledge and the need for innovation. A series of case studies examine the role of coordinating frameworks such as the United States’ Interagency Ocean Observing System (IOOS®), and the European Ocean Observing System (EOOS), public–private partnerships such as Project Azul and the Coastal Data Information Program (CDIP) and finally the role of the “third” or voluntary sector. The paper explores the value that stakeholder engagement can bring as well as making recommendations for the future